The job of the “Not Seasonally Adjusted” division was the loneliest in the Bureau of Economic Statistics. While the other economists fiddled with smoothing algorithms and rolling averages, Nora Chen sat in a windowless basement office, tracking the raw, unfiltered heartbeat of the nation.
Seasonal adjustment models are based on historical averages. However, history does not always repeat itself perfectly.
While seasonally adjusted data dominates the headlines, Not Seasonally Adjusted data offers the raw, unvarnished truth of economic activity. Understanding the difference is essential for investors, business owners, and anyone trying to get a clear picture of the economy.
Comparing December 2023 to December 2022 (using NSA data) provides a fair comparison because both months include the holiday shopping season. This eliminates the need for complex seasonal adjustments and gives a clear picture of growth (or decline) over the long term.
Someone didn’t want Nora to report back.
One Tuesday, she noticed a blip. Not a seasonal one. In mid-February—a dead zone for economic activity—the number of people filing for unemployment in a single county in Montana jumped by 400%. No blizzard, no plant closure, no holiday hangover. Just a screaming red spike in the raw data.
If you're in the market for something like this, I suppose it's worth considering. But don't expect me to be raving about it or anything.
The job of the “Not Seasonally Adjusted” division was the loneliest in the Bureau of Economic Statistics. While the other economists fiddled with smoothing algorithms and rolling averages, Nora Chen sat in a windowless basement office, tracking the raw, unfiltered heartbeat of the nation.
Seasonal adjustment models are based on historical averages. However, history does not always repeat itself perfectly.
While seasonally adjusted data dominates the headlines, Not Seasonally Adjusted data offers the raw, unvarnished truth of economic activity. Understanding the difference is essential for investors, business owners, and anyone trying to get a clear picture of the economy.
Comparing December 2023 to December 2022 (using NSA data) provides a fair comparison because both months include the holiday shopping season. This eliminates the need for complex seasonal adjustments and gives a clear picture of growth (or decline) over the long term.
Someone didn’t want Nora to report back.
One Tuesday, she noticed a blip. Not a seasonal one. In mid-February—a dead zone for economic activity—the number of people filing for unemployment in a single county in Montana jumped by 400%. No blizzard, no plant closure, no holiday hangover. Just a screaming red spike in the raw data.
If you're in the market for something like this, I suppose it's worth considering. But don't expect me to be raving about it or anything.
